250 National Capability Trends

The National Capability Framework is organised into nine capability domains. We've identified a balanced list of the top 250 trends from across the nine domains shaping national power, prosperity and resilience

Rank
Trend
Thematic
Share
Change, WoW
Move
3Y Share
1
People, health & work
4.1%+25%
Stable±7%
2
Global South coalitions
Information & Influence
Diplomacy & influence
2.9%+20%
Turbulent±36%
3
People, health & work
2.3%+22%
Turbulent±36%
4
Conflict & security
2.3%+20%
Shifting±9%
5
Contested maritime access
National Security
Conflict & security
2.2%−5%
Turbulent±31%
6
People, health & work
2.1%+1%
Stable±7%
7
Information & trust
2.0%+36%
Shifting±12%
8
Shifting economic weight
Trade & Investment
Trade, industry & supply chains
2.0%+10%
Turbulent±27%
9
Corruption & state capture
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
2.0%+23%
Stable±7%
10
State capacity & governance
1.8%+81%
Turbulent±22%
11
Renewable generation expansion
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
1.8%+8%
Stable±7%
12
Synthetic media & deepfakes
Information & Influence
Information & trust
1.7%+18%
Turbulent±15%
13
Biometric identification
Critical Technology
State capacity & governance
1.5%+13%
Stable±6%
14
Energy, networks & climate resilience
1.5%+9%
Stable±6%
15
AI, compute & quantum
1.4%+1%
Stable±8%
16
Climate change & physical risk
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
1.4%−2%
Turbulent±12%
17
Conflict & security
1.3%+13%
Stable±6%
18
Rail & mass transit expansion
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
1.2%+10%
Stable±5%
19
Conflict & security
1.2%+18%
Stable±8%
20
Information & trust
1.1%+7%
Stable±6%
21
Fossil fuel supply & refining
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
1.1%−3%
Stable±8%
22
Polarisation & populism
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
1.1%+12%
Shifting±9%
23
Information & trust
1.1%+19%
Stable±6%
24
Misinformation & disinformation
Information & Influence
Information & trust
1.0%+14%
Stable±7%
25
Conflict & security
1.0%−45%
Turbulent±39%
26
Next-generation mobile networks
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.99%+24%
Stable±8%
27
Money & debt
0.96%+10%
Shifting±9%
28
Batteries & energy storage
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.94%−5%
Stable±5%
29
Advanced materials
Critical Technology
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.90%+8%
Stable±5%
30
State capacity & governance
0.89%+13%
Shifting±8%
31
Medical devices & neurotechnology
Production & Innovation
People, health & work
0.85%+1%
Stable±4%
32
Quantum computing
Critical Technology
AI, compute & quantum
0.82%−3%
Turbulent±28%
33
State capacity & governance
0.79%+28%
Turbulent±14%
34
Connected infrastructure operation
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.79%+6%
Shifting±9%
35
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.76%−10%
Turbulent±18%
36
Fusion energy
Critical Technology
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.76%+7%
Shifting±12%
37
AI, compute & quantum
0.73%+5%
Shifting±9%
38
People, health & work
0.72%+38%
Turbulent±21%
39
Satellite connectivity expansion
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.72%+44%
Turbulent±16%
40
Drones & advanced air mobility
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.71%+18%
Shifting±12%
41
State capacity & governance
0.70%+15%
Shifting±9%
42
People, health & work
0.70%−2%
Stable±8%
43
Open-weight AI diffusion
Critical Technology
AI, compute & quantum
0.69%+17%
Turbulent±14%
44
Biodiversity & ecosystem loss
Strategic Infrastructure
Food, water & nature
0.68%+7%
Stable±7%
45
Solar manufacturing cost decline
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.68%−17%
Turbulent±15%
46
Urban population concentration
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.67%+6%
Stable±5%
47
Conflict & security
0.66%−6%
Stable±8%
48
Data protection & digital rights
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.64%−4%
Stable±6%
49
Conflict & security
0.63%+36%
Stable±8%
50
Conflict & security
0.62%+4%
Turbulent±24%
51
Subsea cable & pipeline dependence
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.62%+111%
Turbulent±24%
52
Grid expansion & demand flexibility
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.62%+11%
Stable±7%
53
Money & debt
0.62%+10%
Shifting±8%
54
Online harms & safety
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.60%+5%
Stable±6%
55
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.59%+16%
Stable±8%
56
AI-mediated information access
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.58%+10%
Stable±6%
57
Conflict & security
0.56%+21%
Stable±5%
58
State capacity & governance
0.55%+6%
Stable±6%
59
State capacity & governance
0.54%−9%
Turbulent±17%
60
People, health & work
0.51%+86%
Turbulent±20%
61
Cloud & edge computing
Critical Technology
AI, compute & quantum
0.50%−5%
Shifting±9%
62
Early-warning coverage
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.50%−3%
Turbulent±23%
63
Militarisation of space
National Security
Conflict & security
0.50%+26%
Turbulent±25%
64
Conflict & security
0.47%+2%
Turbulent±13%
65
Automated AI research
Critical Technology
AI, compute & quantum
0.45%−7%
Turbulent±34%
66
Advanced nuclear fission
Critical Technology
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.44%−3%
Shifting±10%
67
AI, compute & quantum
0.43%+2%
Shifting±9%
68
Water treatment & desalination
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.42%−11%
Stable±6%
69
People, health & work
0.42%−6%
Stable±7%
70
Food, water & nature
0.39%+6%
Shifting±9%
71
Remittance dependence
Financial Strength
Money & debt
0.39%−4%
Shifting±9%
72
Capital concentration in AI
Financial Strength
AI, compute & quantum
0.39%−2%
Turbulent±14%
73
Orbital debris & congestion
Critical Technology
Conflict & security
0.39%+27%
Turbulent±17%
74
Aquaculture intensification
Production & Innovation
Food, water & nature
0.38%+5%
Stable±7%
75
Autonomous vehicles
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.38%+5%
Shifting±11%
76
Food, water & nature
0.38%+12%
Turbulent±22%
77
People, health & work
0.37%+25%
Stable±7%
78
Diet & nutrition shifts
Production & Innovation
People, health & work
0.37%−8%
Stable±6%
79
AI, compute & quantum
0.37%+9%
Stable±7%
80
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.37%+4%
Turbulent±12%
81
Conflict & security
0.36%+3%
Shifting±12%
82
Conflict & security
0.36%−28%
Turbulent±51%
83
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.36%−2%
Stable±7%
84
Electrification of heat & industry
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.36%+20%
Shifting±9%
85
Conflict & security
0.35%+4%
Shifting±11%
86
Alternative proteins
Production & Innovation
Food, water & nature
0.34%+16%
Shifting±10%
87
Circular materials & recycling
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.34%+15%
Stable±6%
88
Religious & identity nationalism
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.34%+23%
Shifting±10%
89
People, health & work
0.33%−9%
Stable±6%
90
Money & debt
0.33%−8%
Shifting±12%
91
People, health & work
0.33%+17%
Stable±6%
92
AI safety & governance
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.32%−18%
Turbulent±14%
93
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.31%+23%
Turbulent±20%
94
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.30%−8%
Stable±5%
95
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.30%−5%
Turbulent±25%
96
Conflict & security
0.30%0%
Turbulent±24%
97
Dams, reservoirs & flood defence
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.29%−26%
Turbulent±15%
98
Money & debt
0.29%+7%
Turbulent±17%
99
People, health & work
0.29%−21%
Turbulent±25%
100
Slow growth & fiscal space
Financial Strength
Money & debt
0.28%+5%
Turbulent±13%
101
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.28%−24%
Turbulent±14%
102
People, health & work
0.27%+21%
Stable±7%
103
Agricultural soil degradation
Strategic Infrastructure
Food, water & nature
0.27%0%
Stable±6%
104
State capacity & governance
0.27%+6%
Stable±5%
105
State capacity & delivery
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.26%−6%
Stable±4%
106
People, health & work
0.25%+7%
Stable±5%
107
People, health & work
0.25%+49%
Turbulent±13%
108
Conflict & security
0.24%0%
Stable±7%
109
Media provenance & authentication
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.24%+32%
Turbulent±20%
110
AI, compute & quantum
0.24%+23%
Shifting±10%
111
Enhanced geothermal
Critical Technology
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.24%+19%
Shifting±11%
112
Money & debt
0.23%+22%
Turbulent±16%
113
People, health & work
0.23%+4%
Stable±6%
114
Food, water & nature
0.23%−10%
Shifting±9%
115
People, health & work
0.22%+12%
Stable±7%
116
Asylum & migration system strain
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.21%+53%
Turbulent±16%
117
Money & debt
0.21%+34%
Turbulent±14%
118
Ocean economy
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.21%+3%
Stable±7%
119
Development finance as influence
Information & Influence
Diplomacy & influence
0.21%−9%
Shifting±8%
120
Adaptable vaccine platforms
Critical Technology
People, health & work
0.21%+1%
Turbulent±30%
121
International student flows
Information & Influence
Diplomacy & influence
0.21%+17%
Shifting±12%
122
Data-centre power & water demand
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.20%+2%
Shifting±10%
123
Censorship & surveillance
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.20%+7%
Stable±8%
124
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.20%+12%
Stable±6%
125
Hydrogen & low-carbon fuels
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.20%−13%
Shifting±9%
126
Global health governance
Governance & Integrity
People, health & work
0.19%−4%
Shifting±11%
127
Money & debt
0.19%+6%
Turbulent±14%
128
Retail & food-service automation
Production & Innovation
People, health & work
0.19%+6%
Turbulent±16%
129
People, health & work
0.19%−13%
Stable±6%
130
People, health & work
0.19%+21%
Stable±7%
131
Conflict & security
0.18%+8%
Turbulent±13%
132
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.18%+37%
Shifting±12%
133
Soft power & cultural influence
Information & Influence
Diplomacy & influence
0.18%−30%
Turbulent±17%
134
Trade corridor competition
Trade & Investment
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.18%−6%
Stable±8%
135
People, health & work
0.18%−4%
Turbulent±20%
136
Food loss & waste
Production & Innovation
Food, water & nature
0.17%−12%
Stable±7%
137
Strategic stockpiles & reserves
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.17%−14%
Turbulent±17%
138
Agricultural technology
Production & Innovation
Food, water & nature
0.17%+13%
Stable±6%
139
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.16%−3%
Stable±7%
140
Money & debt
0.16%−1%
Turbulent±14%
141
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.16%−15%
Shifting±9%
142
AI, compute & quantum
0.16%−1%
Shifting±9%
143
Money & debt
0.16%+8%
Stable±8%
144
Regional medicines manufacturing
Production & Innovation
People, health & work
0.16%−2%
Stable±7%
145
Frontier model concentration
Critical Technology
AI, compute & quantum
0.15%−13%
Shifting±9%
146
People, health & work
0.15%−5%
Stable±8%
147
Non-bank finance growth
Financial Strength
Money & debt
0.15%+1%
Stable±6%
148
Conflict & security
0.15%−21%
Turbulent±14%
149
Industrial robotics & automation
Production & Innovation
People, health & work
0.15%+9%
Shifting±9%
150
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.15%−24%
Shifting±10%
151
Population ageing
Human Capital
People, health & work
0.14%−5%
Stable±6%
152
Energy import dependence
Trade & Investment
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.14%−21%
Stable±8%
153
Research & development intensity
Production & Innovation
People, health & work
0.14%−12%
Stable±8%
154
Stretched asset valuations
Financial Strength
Money & debt
0.14%+4%
Shifting±12%
155
Money & debt
0.14%+3%
Stable±7%
156
People, health & work
0.14%+3%
Stable±7%
157
Financial inclusion
Financial Strength
Money & debt
0.13%0%
Shifting±9%
158
Money & debt
0.13%−4%
Stable±8%
159
Advanced semiconductors
Critical Technology
AI, compute & quantum
0.13%−14%
Shifting±10%
160
Social protection coverage gaps
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.13%+53%
Shifting±10%
161
Conflict & security
0.12%−8%
Shifting±9%
162
Information & trust
0.12%−11%
Shifting±10%
163
Diplomacy & influence
0.12%−13%
Turbulent±17%
164
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.12%+3%
Shifting±11%
165
Food, water & nature
0.12%−21%
Shifting±10%
166
Money & debt
0.12%−5%
Stable±7%
167
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.12%−12%
Shifting±9%
168
People, health & work
0.11%+11%
Shifting±8%
169
Access over ownership models
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.11%+5%
Stable±6%
170
Persistent armed conflict
National Security
Conflict & security
0.11%−23%
Turbulent±13%
171
Food storage & cold chains
Strategic Infrastructure
Food, water & nature
0.10%−18%
Shifting±9%
172
Money & debt
0.10%−14%
Shifting±8%
173
People, health & work
0.10%−1%
Stable±7%
174
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.10%−6%
Stable±6%
175
Money & debt
0.10%−18%
Turbulent±16%
176
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.10%−4%
Stable±7%
177
Telecom network resilience
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.10%+21%
Turbulent±13%
178
Conflict & security
0.09%+2%
Turbulent±16%
179
Information & trust
0.09%−19%
Shifting±9%
180
People, health & work
0.09%−4%
Stable±7%
181
Quantum sensing & timing
Critical Technology
Conflict & security
0.09%−2%
Shifting±12%
182
Great-power competition
National Security
Conflict & security
0.09%−25%
Turbulent±20%
183
Urban cooling infrastructure
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.09%−8%
Turbulent±14%
184
Arms control erosion
National Security
Conflict & security
0.09%+17%
Shifting±9%
185
Conflict & security
0.09%+13%
Shifting±10%
186
Conflict & security
0.08%−15%
Turbulent±13%
187
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.08%−15%
Shifting±8%
188
AI inference efficiency
Critical Technology
AI, compute & quantum
0.08%−8%
Shifting±10%
189
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.08%−21%
Shifting±10%
190
Middle-power diplomatic leverage
Information & Influence
Diplomacy & influence
0.08%−3%
Stable±7%
191
Distributed power
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.08%−13%
Stable±6%
192
Public procurement capability
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.08%−18%
Turbulent±20%
193
Carbon border adjustments
Trade & Investment
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.08%+1%
Turbulent±13%
194
Public communication in crisis
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.07%−8%
Turbulent±20%
195
Digital public infrastructure
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.07%+6%
Turbulent±29%
196
People, health & work
0.07%+11%
Shifting±9%
197
People, health & work
0.07%−1%
Shifting±9%
198
Industrial policy competition
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.07%−8%
Stable±7%
199
Money & debt
0.07%−16%
Stable±6%
200
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.07%+39%
Shifting±11%
201
State capacity & governance
0.07%−10%
Shifting±9%
202
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.07%−10%
Shifting±11%
203
Local & city government capacity
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.07%−18%
Turbulent±18%
204
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.07%−13%
Turbulent±15%
205
Civil service capability & pay
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.07%+12%
Stable±7%
206
Conflict & security
0.07%−7%
Shifting±11%
207
People, health & work
0.07%−3%
Stable±8%
208
AI-accelerated science
Critical Technology
People, health & work
0.07%0%
Shifting±12%
209
Money & debt
0.06%+16%
Shifting±12%
210
People, health & work
0.06%−10%
Shifting±10%
211
Algorithmic accountability & bias
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.06%+5%
Stable±8%
212
Money & debt
0.06%−11%
Turbulent±15%
213
People, health & work
0.06%0%
Stable±7%
214
Diplomatic capacity under strain
Information & Influence
Diplomacy & influence
0.05%−19%
Stable±8%
215
Fiscal rules & budget credibility
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.05%−7%
Turbulent±15%
216
AI drug development
Production & Innovation
People, health & work
0.05%−6%
Turbulent±16%
217
Declining institutional trust
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.05%+5%
Shifting±8%
218
People, health & work
0.05%+20%
Shifting±9%
219
People, health & work
0.05%−20%
Turbulent±14%
220
Technical standards competition
Information & Influence
Diplomacy & influence
0.04%−19%
Shifting±11%
221
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.04%−8%
Shifting±8%
222
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.04%−27%
Shifting±12%
223
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.04%−16%
Shifting±9%
224
Election integrity & interference
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.04%+40%
Turbulent±27%
225
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.04%−29%
Shifting±11%
226
Money & debt
0.04%−46%
Turbulent±23%
227
Decline of independent journalism
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.04%+1%
Turbulent±16%
228
Economic security policy
Trade & Investment
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.04%−21%
Shifting±12%
229
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.03%0%
Turbulent±43%
230
Manufacturing overcapacity
Production & Innovation
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.03%−5%
Shifting±10%
231
Reliable energy access gaps
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.03%−17%
Turbulent±18%
232
Public-sector AI adoption
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.03%−17%
Shifting±10%
233
Foreign information manipulation
Information & Influence
Information & trust
0.03%−7%
Turbulent±14%
234
Conflict & security
0.03%−33%
Shifting±11%
235
Information & trust
0.03%+32%
Turbulent±14%
236
Conflict & security
0.03%−21%
Shifting±9%
237
Money & debt
0.03%−16%
Shifting±9%
238
State capacity & governance
0.03%−24%
Turbulent±33%
239
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.02%−14%
Turbulent±15%
240
Firm & black-start capacity
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.02%−5%
Stable±6%
241
Adaptive regulation
Governance & Integrity
State capacity & governance
0.02%−31%
Turbulent±16%
242
Money & debt
0.02%−3%
Turbulent±13%
243
Disaster risk finance
Financial Strength
Energy, networks & climate resilience
0.02%−8%
Shifting±11%
244
State capacity & governance
0.02%−52%
Turbulent±19%
245
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.02%−16%
Shifting±11%
246
Diplomacy & influence
0.01%−30%
Turbulent±13%
247
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.01%−4%
Shifting±12%
248
People, health & work
0.01%−9%
Shifting±8%
249
Diplomacy & influence
0.01%−12%
Shifting±12%
250
Trade, industry & supply chains
0.01%−20%
Turbulent±20%