Trend · rank 23 of 250

Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity

Cross-border investment into many developing economies is falling as investors weigh political risk and screening more heavily, which reduces capital and technology transfer for nations lacking credible institutions and accessible markets.

Trade & InvestmentTrade, industry & supply chainstradegeoeconomicsdebt finance

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass, where it was Foreign direct investment slowdown. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
23of 250
Sensitivity
15.8rank 40
Breadth
3of 20 scenarios High or above
PageRank
59.7rank 24
Eigenvector
3.6
Betweenness
54.0
Links
21trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
41.1

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Share of attention
0.10%rank 183 of 250 · a year earlier 0.12%
Now
100
Over a year
−1%Steady
Over three years
+15%
Peak
13815 Feb 2026
Sources
Bothagreement -0.71
Coverage
22languages · 58 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (22 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English53%85−9%
Spanish12%85−10%
Italian6%66−35%
French5%67−13%
Russian4%80+2%
German3%850%
Vietnamese3%50−45%
Chinese3%144+95%
Hindi2%62−28%
Japanese2%73−28%
Polish1%47−11%
Arabic1%52−5%
Portuguese1%105+25%
Bengali1%75−25%
Persian1%86+4%
Turkish1%85−2%
Ukrainian1%91+77%
Tamil0%165+90%
Malay0%68−37%
Korean0%118+25%
Indonesian0%79−21%
Dutch0%83−13%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

The 12 highest of 58 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English90−20%−2%−6%
EuropeGoogle in 4 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch88−7%−5%−20%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 8 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Malay101−14%+18%0%
South AsiaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali, Tamil88−19%+12%−18%
Gulf and Middle EastWikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish71−25%−1%−45%
AfricaGoogle in 2 countries99−11%−4%−4%
Latin America and CaribbeanGoogle in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese102−9%0%+7%
Russia and EurasiaWikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian83−7%+15%−38%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
ArgentinaGoogle163+15%+56%+209%
AustraliaGoogle87−40%+13%−9%
BrazilWikipedia in Portuguese105+14%+25%−10%
CanadaGoogle115−20%+77%+34%
FranceGoogle + Wikipedia in French78−8%−14%−33%
GermanyWikipedia in German85−9%0%−25%
IndiaGoogle + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali, Tamil88−8%+3%−18%
IndonesiaGoogle + Wikipedia in Indonesian95−21%+7%+13%
ItalyGoogle + Wikipedia in Italian76−20%−36%−25%
JapanGoogle + Wikipedia in Japanese86−41%+2%−5%
South KoreaGoogle + Wikipedia in Korean127+2%+33%+33%
MexicoGoogle83−30%−26%−9%
RussiaWikipedia in Russian80−14%+2%−35%
South AfricaGoogle112−1%0%+61%
TürkiyeWikipedia in Turkish85−9%−2%−7%
United KingdomGoogle149+23%+111%+61%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English86−22%−10%−9%

Share of attention by region

GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.

PlaceShare, last 13 weeksRank thereA year earlierRead from
World0.10%183 of 2500.12%Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide
Asia Pacific0.13%173 of 2500.14%Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China
Europe0.08%203 of 2500.18%German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them
Africa0.07%146 of 2500.09%Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count
South America0.49%59 of 2500.53%Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries
North America0.05%183 of 2490.05%Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country
Oceania0.05%183 of 2490.05%Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country
United States0.03%205 of 2490.03%Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
United Kingdom0.03%200 of 2490.03%Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
India0.08%126 of 2490.04%Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country
China···Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there
Russia0.07%186 of 2030.07%Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought
Japan0.03%230 of 2500.04%Japanese reading and Google searching
Germany0.08%204 of 2500.04%German reading and Google searching
France0.03%222 of 2500.06%French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching
Italy0.21%104 of 2501.1%Italian reading and Google searching
South Korea0.03%220 of 2500.03%Korean reading and Google searching
Indonesia0.03%188 of 2500.03%Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count
Brazil0.06%191 of 2500.04%Portuguese reading and Google searching
Türkiye0.00%188 of 2500.00%Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4 · HighCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
4 · HighA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
4 · HighA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
3 · ModerateCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
2 · LowA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
2 · LowA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
0 · Not relatedA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
5 · Very highSovereign wealth & state capitalTrade, industry & supply chains108
4 · HighTrade & investment fragmentationTrade, industry & supply chains37
4 · HighTrade corridor competitionTrade, industry & supply chains38
4 · HighEconomic security policyTrade, industry & supply chains47
4 · HighTariff barrier normalisationTrade, industry & supply chains58
4 · HighShifting economic weightTrade, industry & supply chains78
4 · HighRegional trade agreement deepeningTrade, industry & supply chains105
3 · ModerateIndustrial policy competitionTrade, industry & supply chains26
3 · ModerateExport controls & economic coercionTrade, industry & supply chains34
3 · ModerateDollar dependence & payment fragmentationMoney & debt45
3 · ModerateExternal liquidity buffer requirementsMoney & debt46
3 · ModerateManufacturing overcapacityTrade, industry & supply chains51
3 · ModerateCommodity dependence & price volatilityTrade, industry & supply chains54
3 · ModerateCritical input supplier concentrationTrade, industry & supply chains74
3 · ModerateRare earth processing concentrationTrade, industry & supply chains102
3 · ModerateSanctions circumvention networksTrade, industry & supply chains140
3 · ModerateCritical minerals supply constraintsTrade, industry & supply chains155
3 · ModerateAfrica's demographic & economic riseTrade, industry & supply chains172
3 · ModerateNon-tariff compliance & traceabilityTrade, industry & supply chains185
3 · ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsTrade, industry & supply chains186
3 · ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsMoney & debt200