Attention Share over time
GINC's attention score, worldwide and in each region: 100 is this trend's own three-year average in each place, as an 8-week average.
Regional Attention
By region
This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each region, and its rank there.
0.27%
1150.27%
800.22%
950.17%
1480.15%
1140.14%
1700.13%
1610.10%
1120.09%
1450.06%
1050.03%
201By country
This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each country, and its rank there: the 12 highest of 49.
1.2%
200.45%
470.39%
830.36%
760.32%
740.25%
620.20%
840.19%
1120.15%
720.14%
1130.14%
1390.13%
106Similar Trends
The ten trends most like this one: each one's share of attention over the period chosen, largest first, and over three years.
0.73%
0.49%
0.29%
0.12%
0.07%
0.04%
Scenario Relevance
A trend is relevant to a GINC Scenario where it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each trend is graded against every scenario on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical.
Downside scenarios
| Scenario | Relevance |
|---|---|
S04 Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout Geopolitical and security | Very high |
S07 A major disaster disables the national economic core Energy, climate and resources | Moderate |
S09 A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust Technology and infrastructure | Moderate |
S01 Critical trade divides into rival blocs Economic and trade | Low |
S10 A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity Health | Low |
S03 A regional war closes a globally important sea route Geopolitical and security | Very low |
S02 A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets Economic and trade | Nil |
S05 A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government Geopolitical and security | Nil |
S06 Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis Energy, climate and resources | Nil |
S08 An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement Technology and infrastructure | Nil |
Upside scenarios
| Scenario | Relevance |
|---|---|
S18 A public service platform reaches inclusive operation Technology and infrastructure | High |
S12 A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment Economic and trade | Very low |
S11 A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity Economic and trade | Nil |
S13 A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers Geopolitical and security | Nil |
S14 A verified Middle East settlement restores access Geopolitical and security | Nil |
S15 Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale Energy, climate and resources | Nil |
S16 A validated farming package raises water-efficient output Energy, climate and resources | Nil |
S17 AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step Technology and infrastructure | Nil |
S19 Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness Health | Nil |
S20 A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence Health | Nil |