Trade & Investment

Critical minerals supply constraints

Demand for lithium, copper, nickel and other minerals is rising faster than mines and infrastructure can be developed, making access to supply a constraint on national electrification, manufacturing and defence production.

Attention Share over time

GINC's attention score, worldwide and in each region: 100 is this trend's own three-year average in each place, as an 8-week average.

Regional Attention

By region

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each region, and its rank there.

Latin America & Caribbean

1.7%

1.5%

1.4%

0.53%

0.50%

0.35%

0.32%

0.27%

0.18%

101

0.17%

156

0.16%

162

By country

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each country, and its rank there: the 12 highest of 48.

3.5%

3.3%

2.6%

2.5%

1.9%

1.7%

1.6%

1.5%

The ten trends most like this one: each one's share of attention over the period chosen, largest first, and over three years.

Batteries & energy storage

Rare earth processing concentration

Sovereign wealth & state capital

Trade corridor competition

Commodity dependence & price volatility

Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity

Trade & investment fragmentation

Export controls & economic coercion

Economic security policy

Critical input supplier concentration

1.1%

0.55%

0.32%

0.26%

0.13%

0.12%

0.08%

0.07%

0.05%

0.02%

Scenario Relevance

A trend is relevant to a GINC Scenario where it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each trend is graded against every scenario on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical.

Downside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S01 Critical trade divides into rival blocs Economic and trade	Very high
S02 A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets Economic and trade	Very low
S03 A regional war closes a globally important sea route Geopolitical and security	Nil
S04 Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout Geopolitical and security	Nil
S05 A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government Geopolitical and security	Nil
S06 Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S07 A major disaster disables the national economic core Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S08 An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S09 A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S10 A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity Health	Nil

Upside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S15 Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale Energy, climate and resources	High
S12 A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment Economic and trade	Moderate
S13 A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers Geopolitical and security	Moderate
S17 AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step Technology and infrastructure	Moderate
S11 A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity Economic and trade	Very low
S14 A verified Middle East settlement restores access Geopolitical and security	Nil
S16 A validated farming package raises water-efficient output Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S18 A public service platform reaches inclusive operation Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S19 Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness Health	Nil
S20 A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence Health	Nil