Trend · rank 3 of 250

Rule of law & judicial independence

Political interference and resource constraints are weakening courts and prosecutors in many states, reducing the predictability of contracts, the protection of rights and the legal limits on those who hold power.

Governance & IntegrityState capacity & governanceinstitutionspolitics

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by all three panel models.

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Share of attention: 0.42%rank 70 of 250 · a year earlier 0.47%
Now: 77
Over a year: −10%Steady
Over three years: −26%
Peak: 1453 Dec 2023
Sources: Bothagreement 0.79
Coverage: 20languages · 51 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (20 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

Language	Share	Now	Over a year
English	44%	70	−23%
Spanish	8%	91	+10%
Russian	7%	88	+7%
Chinese	6%	83	−9%
Hindi	5%	72	−24%
German	4%	75	−11%
French	4%	78	−19%
Dutch	3%	71	−28%
Japanese	3%	107	+17%
Polish	2%	54	−23%
Turkish	2%	104	+26%
Ukrainian	2%	79	+6%
Arabic	2%	61	−12%
Hebrew	2%	59	−1%
Vietnamese	1%	100	+27%
Korean	1%	97	−12%
Persian	1%	77	−1%
Malay	1%	78	−8%
Indonesian	1%	65	+26%
Thai	0%	70	−32%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

100

The 12 highest of 51 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
North America	Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English	81	+20%	−14%	−30%
Europe	Google in 7 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Polish, Dutch	67	−31%	−13%	−53%
China	Google in 1 country	55	−52%	−58%	−56%
Indo-Pacific	Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Thai, Malay	90	+12%	+1%	−27%
South Asia	Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Hindi	72	−14%	−26%	−42%
Gulf and Middle East	Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew	78	−24%	+20%	−38%
Africa	Google in 4 countries	55	−24%	−22%	−43%
Latin America and Caribbean	Google in 4 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish	90	−26%	+4%	−6%
Russia and Eurasia	Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian	63	−45%	0%	−59%

G20 members

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
Australia	Google	88	+31%	−13%	−1%
Brazil	Google	96	−23%	+2%	+34%
Canada	Google	89	−2%	−1%	−15%
China	Google	55	−52%	−58%	−56%
France	Google + Wikipedia in French	72	−26%	−2%	−55%
Germany	Google + Wikipedia in German	70	−10%	−17%	−47%
India	Google + Wikipedia in Hindi	73	−10%	−23%	−42%
Indonesia	Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian	69	+34%	+22%	−65%
Italy	Google	67	−51%	+4%	−23%
Japan	Google + Wikipedia in Japanese	106	+8%	+7%	+10%
South Korea	Google + Wikipedia in Korean	126	+11%	+58%	+92%
Mexico	Google	72	−38%	+16%	+7%
Russia	Wikipedia in Russian	88	−14%	+7%	−30%
South Africa	Google	88	+16%	−2%	+53%
Türkiye	Google + Wikipedia in Turkish	92	−17%	+32%	−17%
United Kingdom	Google	69	−7%	−16%	−53%
United States	Google + Wikipedia in English	81	+29%	−14%	−32%

GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.

Place	Share, last 13 weeks	Rank there	A year earlier	Read from
World	0.42%	70 of 250	0.47%	Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide
Asia Pacific	0.40%	75 of 250	0.46%	Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China
Europe	0.24%	101 of 250	0.32%	German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them
Africa	0.18%	99 of 250	0.27%	Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count
South America	0.15%	150 of 250	0.17%	Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries
North America	0.31%	75 of 249	0.33%	Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country
Oceania	0.32%	77 of 249	0.28%	Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country
United States	0.47%	59 of 249	0.45%	Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
United Kingdom	0.12%	118 of 249	0.13%	Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
India	0.21%	77 of 249	0.10%	Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country
China	·	·	·	Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there
Russia	0.43%	66 of 203	0.42%	Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought
Japan	0.24%	124 of 250	0.22%	Japanese reading and Google searching
Germany	0.30%	86 of 250	0.34%	German reading and Google searching
France	0.12%	149 of 250	0.17%	French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching
Italy	0.04%	206 of 250	0.05%	Italian reading and Google searching
South Korea	0.40%	63 of 250	0.34%	Korean reading and Google searching
Indonesia	0.05%	152 of 250	0.07%	Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count
Brazil	0.03%	217 of 250	0.03%	Portuguese reading and Google searching
Türkiye	0.00%	163 of 250	0.01%	Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

Relation	Scenario	Family
6 · Critical	A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05	Geopolitical and security
3 · Moderate	A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗	Economic and trade
3 · Moderate	A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗	Geopolitical and security
3 · Moderate	A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
2 · Low	A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02	Economic and trade
2 · Low	Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04	Geopolitical and security
2 · Low	A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗	Economic and trade
1 · Very low	Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01	Economic and trade
1 · Very low	A major disaster disables the national economic core S07	Energy, climate and resources
1 · Very low	A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09	Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very low	A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10	Health
1 · Very low	A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗	Geopolitical and security
1 · Very low	Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
1 · Very low	A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
1 · Very low	AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very low	Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗	Health
1 · Very low	A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗	Health
0 · Not related	A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08	Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

Similarity	Trend	Theme	Rank
5 · Very high	Executive overreach & emergency powers	State capacity & governance	4
5 · Very high	Corruption & state capture	State capacity & governance	5
5 · Very high	Regulatory capture & lobbying power	State capacity & governance	8
5 · Very high	Polarisation & populism	State capacity & governance	15
5 · Very high	Citizen participation & deliberative democracy	State capacity & governance	60
4 · High	State capacity & delivery	State capacity & governance	1
4 · High	Civil service capability & pay	State capacity & governance	2
4 · High	Erosion of rights & civic freedoms	State capacity & governance	14
4 · High	Fiscal rules & budget credibility	State capacity & governance	17
4 · High	Civil unrest & protest mobilisation	State capacity & governance	25
4 · High	Central bank independence under pressure	State capacity & governance	64
3 · Moderate	Public procurement capability	State capacity & governance	6
3 · Moderate	Declining institutional trust	Information & trust	7
3 · Moderate	Local & city government capacity	State capacity & governance	11
3 · Moderate	Sovereign debt & interest burden	Money & debt	12
3 · Moderate	Social protection coverage gaps	State capacity & governance	13
3 · Moderate	Diplomatic capacity under strain	Diplomacy & influence	16
3 · Moderate	Illicit finance & beneficial ownership	State capacity & governance	20
3 · Moderate	Official statistics & data capacity	State capacity & governance	21
3 · Moderate	Outsourcing & public-private delivery	State capacity & governance	27
3 · Moderate	Decline of independent journalism	Information & trust	29
3 · Moderate	Adaptive regulation	State capacity & governance	33
3 · Moderate	Middle-power diplomatic leverage	Diplomacy & influence	36
3 · Moderate	Data protection & digital rights	State capacity & governance	44
3 · Moderate	Election integrity & interference	Information & trust	57
3 · Moderate	Credibility of external commitments	Diplomacy & influence	65
3 · Moderate	Global South coalitions	Diplomacy & influence	72
3 · Moderate	Weakening multilateral institutions	Diplomacy & influence	77
3 · Moderate	Asylum & migration system strain	State capacity & governance	115
3 · Moderate	State fragility & intrastate violence	Conflict & security	183

Rule of law & judicial independence

Sensitivity and network position