Trend · rank 35 of 250

Telecom network resilience

Growing dependence on digital services is raising the need for backup power, diverse routes and repair capacity in fixed and mobile networks, which decide whether communication survives disaster or attack.

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy, networks & climate resilienceconnectivityresilience

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by all three panel models.

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Share of attention: 0.10%rank 185 of 250 · a year earlier 0.10%
Now: 90
Over a year: +9%Steady
Over three years: −31%
Peak: 30914 Jul 2024
Sources: Bothagreement 0.57
Coverage: 7languages · 37 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (7 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

Language	Share	Now	Over a year
English	62%	115	+31%
Spanish	9%	86	−5%
German	9%	126	+7%
Ukrainian	8%	69	−29%
French	5%	90	−11%
Polish	4%	75	−5%
Italian	3%	74	−17%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

100

The 12 highest of 37 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
North America	Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English	109	+44%	+25%	+8%
Europe	Google in 6 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Polish	100	+8%	+4%	−7%
Indo-Pacific	Google in 8 countries	104	+27%	+14%	−10%
South Asia	Google in 2 countries	94	+15%	−40%	+19%
Africa	Google in 1 country	83	−42%	−6%	−20%
Latin America and Caribbean	Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish	111	+9%	+22%	−1%
Russia and Eurasia	Wikipedia in Ukrainian	69	−15%	−29%	−39%

G20 members

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
Australia	Google	79	+15%	+5%	−63%
Brazil	Google	132	+33%	+53%	+19%
Canada	Google	102	+85%	−10%	−22%
France	Wikipedia in French	90	−12%	−11%	−16%
Germany	Google + Wikipedia in German	123	+15%	+13%	+74%
India	Google	101	+19%	−37%	+49%
Indonesia	Google	87	+37%	−20%	−24%
Italy	Google + Wikipedia in Italian	89	+6%	−11%	−24%
Japan	Google	105	+101%	+8%	−13%
Mexico	Google	109	+19%	+27%	−7%
South Africa	Google	83	−42%	−6%	−20%
United Kingdom	Google	70	+24%	−39%	−51%
United States	Google + Wikipedia in English	109	+46%	+32%	+13%

GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.

Place	Share, last 13 weeks	Rank there	A year earlier	Read from
World	0.10%	185 of 250	0.10%	Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide
Asia Pacific	0.06%	218 of 250	0.05%	Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China
Europe	0.10%	187 of 250	0.15%	German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them
Africa	0.04%	181 of 250	0.06%	Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count
South America	0.14%	157 of 250	0.14%	Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries
North America	0.13%	124 of 249	0.11%	Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country
Oceania	0.31%	81 of 249	0.21%	Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country
United States	0.16%	107 of 249	0.13%	Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
United Kingdom	0.13%	110 of 249	0.35%	Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
India	0.02%	200 of 249	0.02%	Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country
China	·	·	·	Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there
Russia	·	·	·	Not read here. Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought
Japan	0.12%	166 of 250	0.12%	Japanese reading and Google searching
Germany	0.16%	143 of 250	0.25%	German reading and Google searching
France	0.03%	228 of 250	0.03%	French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching
Italy	0.15%	132 of 250	0.20%	Italian reading and Google searching
South Korea	0.01%	247 of 250	0.01%	Korean reading and Google searching
Indonesia	0.04%	174 of 250	0.04%	Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count
Brazil	0.10%	155 of 250	0.09%	Portuguese reading and Google searching
Türkiye	0.00%	226 of 250	0.00%	Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

Relation	Scenario	Family
5 · Very high	Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04	Geopolitical and security
4 · High	A major disaster disables the national economic core S07	Energy, climate and resources
3 · Moderate	A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03	Geopolitical and security
2 · Low	A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10	Health
0 · Not related	A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗	Health
0 · Not related	A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗	Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

Similarity	Trend	Theme	Rank
4 · High	Distributed power	Energy, networks & climate resilience	81
4 · High	Subsea cable & pipeline dependence	Energy, networks & climate resilience	114
4 · High	Satellite connectivity expansion	Energy, networks & climate resilience	167
4 · High	Satellite positioning & timing dependence	Energy, networks & climate resilience	190
3 · Moderate	Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog	Energy, networks & climate resilience	39
3 · Moderate	Whole-of-society resilience	Conflict & security	43
3 · Moderate	Urban population concentration	Energy, networks & climate resilience	61
3 · Moderate	Strategic stockpiles & reserves	Energy, networks & climate resilience	66
3 · Moderate	Electrification of heat & industry	Energy, networks & climate resilience	70
3 · Moderate	Critical infrastructure protection	Conflict & security	80
3 · Moderate	Water treatment & desalination	Energy, networks & climate resilience	89
3 · Moderate	Digital payments & cash decline	Money & debt	109
3 · Moderate	Fossil fuel supply & refining	Energy, networks & climate resilience	112
3 · Moderate	Firm & black-start capacity	Energy, networks & climate resilience	119
3 · Moderate	Grid expansion & demand flexibility	Energy, networks & climate resilience	131
3 · Moderate	Connected infrastructure operation	Energy, networks & climate resilience	145
3 · Moderate	Next-generation mobile networks	Energy, networks & climate resilience	147
3 · Moderate	Urban cooling infrastructure	Energy, networks & climate resilience	151
3 · Moderate	Ransomware & cyber extortion	Conflict & security	164
3 · Moderate	Resilient construction & asset adaptation	Energy, networks & climate resilience	194
3 · Moderate	Reliable energy access gaps	Energy, networks & climate resilience	197
3 · Moderate	Early-warning coverage	Energy, networks & climate resilience	204

Telecom network resilience

Sensitivity and network position