National Security

Persistent armed conflict

State-based conflicts are more numerous than at any time since 1945 and are sustained by external support and weak settlements, exposing nations to prolonged insecurity, displacement and recurrent demands on defence resources.

Attention Share over time

GINC's attention score, worldwide and in each region: 100 is this trend's own three-year average in each place, as an 8-week average.

Regional Attention

By region

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each region, and its rank there.

Middle East

Europe

East Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

0.91%

0.46%

0.42%

0.32%

0.24%

117

0.23%

0.10%

134

0.09%

147

0.04%

163

0.04%

129

0.02%

222

By country

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each country, and its rank there: the 12 highest of 49.

4.3%

0.65%

0.61%

0.60%

0.51%

0.49%

0.47%

0.45%

0.44%

0.42%

0.39%

0.35%

The ten trends most like this one: each one's share of attention over the period chosen, largest first, and over three years.

Contested maritime access

Private military & proxy forces

Drone & autonomous warfare

State fragility & intrastate violence

Organised crime & illicit economies

Hybrid & grey-zone coercion

Alliance realignment & burden-shifting

Whole-of-society resilience

Great-power competition

Critical infrastructure protection

5.8%

1.9%

1.3%

0.89%

0.55%

0.24%

0.22%

0.19%

0.16%

0.13%

Scenario Relevance

A trend is relevant to a GINC Scenario where it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each trend is graded against every scenario on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical.

Downside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S03 A regional war closes a globally important sea route Geopolitical and security	Very high
S04 Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout Geopolitical and security	Moderate
S06 Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis Energy, climate and resources	Moderate
S01 Critical trade divides into rival blocs Economic and trade	Low
S02 A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets Economic and trade	Low
S07 A major disaster disables the national economic core Energy, climate and resources	Low
S05 A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government Geopolitical and security	Very low
S10 A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity Health	Very low
S08 An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S09 A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust Technology and infrastructure	Nil

Upside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S14 A verified Middle East settlement restores access Geopolitical and security	Very high
S11 A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity Economic and trade	Low
S13 A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers Geopolitical and security	Low
S16 A validated farming package raises water-efficient output Energy, climate and resources	Low
S20 A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence Health	Low
S12 A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment Economic and trade	Very low
S15 Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale Energy, climate and resources	Very low
S17 AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S18 A public service platform reaches inclusive operation Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S19 Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness Health	Nil