Production & Innovation

Manufacturing overcapacity

Subsidised investment in steel, solar, batteries and vehicles is outpacing demand, pushing low-priced exports into other markets and closing plants in nations whose producers cannot withstand prolonged low margins.

Attention Share over time

GINC's attention score, worldwide and in each region: 100 is this trend's own three-year average in each place, as an 8-week average.

Regional Attention

By region

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each region, and its rank there.

Latin America & Caribbean

0.31%

0.13%

136

0.12%

183

0.11%

191

0.06%

107

0.04%

209

0.04%

170

0.03%

198

0.03%

247

0.01%

231

0.00%

246

By country

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each country, and its rank there: the 12 highest of 49.

0.62%

0.54%

0.48%

0.46%

0.39%

0.36%

0.32%

0.30%

0.24%

103

0.24%

The ten trends most like this one: each one's share of attention over the period chosen, largest first, and over three years.

Batteries & energy storage

Solar manufacturing cost decline

Sovereign wealth & state capital

Reshoring & localised manufacturing

Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity

Industrial policy competition

Trade & investment fragmentation

Export controls & economic coercion

Economic security policy

Critical input supplier concentration

1.1%

0.66%

0.32%

0.18%

0.12%

0.10%

0.08%

0.07%

0.05%

0.02%

Scenario Relevance

A trend is relevant to a GINC Scenario where it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each trend is graded against every scenario on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical.

Downside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S01 Critical trade divides into rival blocs Economic and trade	High
S02 A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets Economic and trade	Very low
S03 A regional war closes a globally important sea route Geopolitical and security	Nil
S04 Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout Geopolitical and security	Nil
S05 A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government Geopolitical and security	Nil
S06 Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S07 A major disaster disables the national economic core Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S08 An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S09 A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S10 A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity Health	Nil

Upside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S13 A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers Geopolitical and security	Moderate
S15 Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale Energy, climate and resources	Moderate
S12 A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment Economic and trade	Low
S11 A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity Economic and trade	Nil
S14 A verified Middle East settlement restores access Geopolitical and security	Nil
S16 A validated farming package raises water-efficient output Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S17 AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S18 A public service platform reaches inclusive operation Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S19 Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness Health	Nil
S20 A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence Health	Nil