GINC Trends

Scores by scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

  • 0Not related
  • 1Very low
  • 2Low
  • 3Moderate
  • 4High
  • 5Very high
  • 6Critical
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Trend01 Critical trade divides into rival blocs02 A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets03 A regional war closes a globally important sea route04 Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout05 A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government06 Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis07 A major disaster disables the national economic core08 An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement09 A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust10 A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity11 A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity12 A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment13 A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers14 A verified Middle East settlement restores access15 Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale16 A validated farming package raises water-efficient output17 AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step18 A public service platform reaches inclusive operation19 Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness20 A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defenceSens
Critical Technology28
Synthetic biology & biomanufacturing2····1···3·····14·3415
Earth observation & geospatial sensing··22·32······4·3····13
General-purpose AI capability···22··6········5···13
Adaptable vaccine platforms·········5······2··611
Digital sovereignty & data localisation2··2···11··21····3·111
AI chips & accelerator supply4······3····3···2···10
Cloud & edge computing1··2··122·······13··10
Compute scaling & AI infrastructure1······4····1·2·3···9
Open-weight AI diffusion···22··4········3···9
Advanced semiconductors4······2····3···1···8
AI-accelerated science·········2······5··28
Lithography & chip-tool chokepoints5···········4·······8
Biomarker-guided precision medicine················3·5·7
Frontier model concentration·······5········3···7
Advanced materials2·············3·2···6
Automated AI research·······3········4···6
Post-quantum cryptography transition········6········1··6
Advanced nuclear fission··············5·····4
AI inference efficiency·······3········2···4
Biometric identification·················5··4
Quantum computing········5···········4
Commercial launch & space access··21················3
Enhanced geothermal··············3·····3
Gene editing & cell therapies················3···3
Quantum sensing & timing···3················3
Fusion energy··············2·····2
General-purpose & humanoid robotics·······2············2
Orbital debris & congestion····················0
Strategic Infrastructure29
Strategic stockpiles & reserves4·53·42··3·········219
Food storage & cold chains·····42··2·1···4···313
Connected infrastructure operation··34··3·3·····2·····13
Fossil fuel supply & refining··52·21······22·····12
Next-generation mobile networks2··2··2·1··13····3··12
Subsea cable & pipeline dependence··36··1······4······12
Telecom network resilience··35··4··········2··12
Climate change & physical risk·····65········2····11
Firm & black-start capacity···5··3·······4·····10
Freshwater stress & transboundary water···1·51········5····10
Grid expansion & demand flexibility···4··3·······5·····10
Satellite connectivity expansion··23··4··········3··10
Urban population concentration···2124··2·········110
Water treatment & desalination···3·23·······22····10
Data-centre power & water demand···2···3······4·2···9
Distributed power··14··3·······2·····8
Electrification of heat & industry··23··2·······3·····8
Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog···4··5·······1·····8
Renewable generation expansion1·21··1·······5·····8
Agricultural soil degradation·····4·········5····8
Dams, reservoirs & flood defence·····35········1····8
Electric transport & charging networks1·31··1·······2·····7
Rail & mass transit expansion··21··2····2··1·····7
Satellite positioning & timing dependence··35················7
Early-warning coverage·····24·············5
Reliable energy access gaps···2··2·······2·····5
Resilient construction & asset adaptation······6·············5
Biodiversity & ecosystem loss·····22········1····4
Urban cooling infrastructure···1··3·············3
National Security28
Great-power competition6·33····3·1262··2···23
Whole-of-society resilience··34124··3·········216
Drone & autonomous warfare··54········14······12
Contested maritime access··6·········25······11
Espionage & insider threat2·13····2···2···3···11
Alliance realignment & burden-shifting2·32········32······10
Critical infrastructure protection··45··3·············10
Long-range strike proliferation··53········13······10
State cyber intrusion & prepositioning··46····2···········10
State fragility & intrastate violence····51····3··3······10
Defence industrial base & munitions2·5·········22······9
Rearmament & defence spending·142········22······9
Military logistics complexity1·51········21······8
Persistent armed conflict··4·········15······8
Biosecurity & dual-use biology·········3······2··48
Hybrid & grey-zone coercion··161·······1·······8
Private military & proxy forces··31·········4······7
Undersea military competition··34·········1······7
Electromagnetic spectrum contest··43················6
Arms control erosion··2·········22······5
Nuclear arsenal growth & proliferation··2·········13······5
Organised crime & illicit economies····1·····2··2···1··5
AI-supported military decisions··41················4
Conscription & reserve mobilisation··4·········1·······4
Militarisation of space··31········1·······4
Ransomware & cyber extortion···2··1··········1··3
Terrorism & violent extremism····1········2······3
Arctic & polar competition····················0
Human Capital28
Technical & occupational skill shortages1··2··2332·3··32322225
Entrenched opportunity inequality·1··2213·211···3233222
Health system demand imbalance·1·1·23··52······13418
Chronic disease & obesity burden·1····2··31·····2·6315
Health workforce scarcity······2··521······1413
Digital & AI-supported care1··1··1123·······22112
Informal employment persistence·1···1·2·22······32112
AI & knowledge-work automation·2·····6········5···11
Lifelong learning & digital reskilling·······4···2··2122··11
Persistent nutritional deprivation·····51··2·····4···111
Population ageing······11·3·······24211
Care labour demand growth······1··3········338
Pathogen emergence pressure·········5·········58
Reproductive, maternal & child health·····21··21····1·1·28
Mental health demand growth····2·22·2·········18
Migrant integration demands··3········2·3···1··8
Skilled & research talent migration·······1···2··2·4···8
Antimicrobial resistance1········3······2··27
Sanitation & hygiene access gaps······3··21········27
Youth employment exclusion····2··4···2········7
Climate-related population relocation·····23········2····6
Gender participation divergence·······2·······3·2··6
Healthy lifespan divergence·····1···2········4·6
Heat & pollution health burden·····22·······3·····6
Youth population expansion·······3··12···1····6
Foundational learning deficits·······3·······1·2··5
Graduate skill mismatch·······3········2···4
Persistently low fertility··················1·1
Information & Influence27
Diplomatic capacity under strain3132·2··113334·11··326
Public communication in crisis·114424114···1···3·425
Declining institutional trust·1·25122231··1···32323
Misinformation & disinformation··14512·14···1···31322
Technical standards competition4··1···14··43···13··18
Open-source intelligence & transparency1·342······122···1·114
Conspiracy movements & science denial···24····3·····1·22213
Credibility of external commitments2·1·······2343·····113
Middle-power diplomatic leverage2·2··1····1334······13
Research security & science decoupling3·······21··5···4··113
Decline of independent journalism·1·34·1··2·······2·213
Global South coalitions21···1····43···2···112
Synthetic media & deepfakes···35···21·······2·112
Weakening multilateral institutions21···1····3212·····212
Development finance as influence21···1····32·3·1····11
Foreign information manipulation··244····2·········111
Media provenance & authentication···33···31·······2·111
Religious & identity nationalism2·1·41······21······9
AI-mediated information access···23··1·2·······1·18
Platform power over public discourse···34····2·········18
Censorship & surveillance···23···1········2··7
Digital language representation gaps·······2·1·······4·17
Election integrity & interference···16············1··7
International student flows1······1···13···1···6
Diaspora politics & transnational repression··1·3········2······5
Online harms & safety····2···1········2··4
Soft power & cultural influence·············1······1
Governance & Integrity27
State capacity & delivery2434534234332423243353
Executive overreach & emergency powers2224522114·112··121229
Social protection coverage gaps14112445·32··1·2·23·29
Civil service capability & pay1212312222211111142228
Rule of law & judicial independence12·26·1·11321311131126
Regulatory capture & lobbying power12·1·113·1131131333125
Adaptive regulation1······43··3·132432223
Corruption & state capture12··413··141·312·31123
Polarisation & populism21·262·3·31·12···2·223
Public procurement capability1112·13·231··11·241323
Fiscal rules & budget credibility·5112123·14··12··11·21
Erosion of rights & civic freedoms·113511··31··2·1·21119
Illicit finance & beneficial ownership231·1·1·113123··12·119
Civil unrest & protest mobilisation·32·54·2·21··2···1··18
Local & city government capacity·112224··2···1···21217
Data protection & digital rights···2···14··21···152116
Digital public infrastructure·2·3··2·31·······6·216
Outsourcing & public-private delivery·2·3··2·311··1·1121116
Official statistics & data capacity·3··1112·23····1·21115
Global health governance·········6······1·3613
AI safety & governance·······5···11···51·112
Algorithmic accountability & bias·······3···1····141·8
Asylum & migration system strain··3··11······4······8
Public-sector AI adoption·······311······13··8
Central bank independence under pressure·4··12····1·········7
Citizen participation & deliberative democracy····3··1·········2117
Carbon pricing & environmental taxes···········1··41····5
Financial Strength27
Slow growth & fiscal space14111234·332··1·322·28
Sovereign debt & interest burden·61·1132·26··2···11123
Structural inflation pressure3241·52··2·11111····20
Dollar dependence & payment fragmentation3411·1··3·2123······18
Tax base erosion & coordination12··1114·122··1·131·18
Concessional finance scarcity·2···33··25····2··1217
Capital concentration in AI23·····5····1·2·5···15
External liquidity buffer requirements261··11···322·······15
Digital payments & cash decline·3·4····41·······4··13
Financial market infrastructure resilience·4·3··1·4··1·····2··13
International climate finance gaps·····23···2···43····12
Domestic capital market deepening·4····1···42··2·····11
Stablecoins & digital currencies14·1····4········3··11
Financial inclusion·1···12········3·41·10
Sustainable finance & environmental risk·2···12····1··42····10
Hydrocarbon revenue dependence·13··········25·····9
Tokenisation of financial assets·2·1····5·11·····1··9
Age-related fiscal liabilities·2·······12·······5·8
Sovereign creditor fragmentation·4········6·········8
Bank funding & deposit mobility·6······2········1··8
Household debt & housing affordability·3··1·23············8
Insurance retreat & insurability·12···5·······1·····8
Non-bank finance growth·5········31········8
Remittance dependence·2···1···2···1·1·1··7
Disaster risk finance······6········1····6
Stretched asset valuations·5············1·····5
Commercial property repricing·5··················4
Production & Innovation28
Research & development intensity4······343··2·326·3428
Technology diffusion & productivity gaps2······4···22·3432·220
Business dynamism & start-up formation12·····4···21·2132··15
Batteries & energy storage2··1·······23·5·4···14
Industrial policy competition5··········35·2·2···14
Regional medicines manufacturing2········3······1·3512
Reshoring & localised manufacturing4·2······1·23·1·····11
Smart manufacturing & digital twins3··2···23··21·······11
Manufacturing overcapacity4··········23·3·····10
Solar manufacturing cost decline2··········23·5·····10
AI drug development·········2······5·229
Drones & advanced air mobility1·23··2·1···1··1····9
Ocean economy1·4··········42·····9
Agricultural technology·····4·········51···8
Construction productivity & housing supply······3···2··22·····8
Industrial robotics & automation3······2···22·······8
Diet & nutrition shifts·····2············4·5
Food loss & waste·····3·········3····5
Hydrogen & low-carbon fuels··············4·1···4
Carbon capture, utilisation & storage··············3·1···3
Alternative proteins·····2··········1···3
Autonomous vehicles1·······1···1·······3
Circular materials & recycling1·············2·····3
Medical devices & neurotechnology········1·········2·3
Access over ownership models········1··1········2
Aquaculture intensification·····2··············2
Retail & food-service automation·······2············2
Sustainable consumption & product durability···········1········1
Trade & Investment28
Intellectual property access dependence3······3·2··3··55·5425
Commodity dependence & price volatility325··5·······454····23
Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity44·········4223·····16
Digital & services trade growth4······54··5········15
Export controls & economic coercion6·2·········53··2···15
Economic security policy5··········34·2·3···14
Trade & investment fragmentation6·2········342······14
Energy import dependence··61·········45·····13
Trade & logistics digitalisation3··4····5··3·····1··13
Pharmaceutical input concentration4········4········3312
Tariff barrier normalisation5··········35·······11
Rare earth processing concentration6···········2·4·····10
Trade corridor competition3·2········313······10
Critical input supplier concentration6········1·12······19
Fertiliser supply dependence··1··6·········4····9
Staple food export concentration·····6·········5····9
Trade finance & correspondent banking gaps25········31········9
Critical minerals supply constraints4···········2·4·····8
Lean inventories & just-in-time logistics2·3··13··1··········8
Non-tariff compliance & traceability3··········41··1····8
Sanctions circumvention networks3·2·········13······8
Sovereign wealth & state capital·1········22·22·····8
Africa's demographic & economic rise·····1····22···2···17
Port & carrier concentration1·4···1······2······7
Regional trade agreement deepening2··········5········6
Shifting economic weight2··········32·······6
Carbon border adjustments···········2··4·····5
Emerging middle-class demand···········2········2

Column headings are scenario numbers: 01 Trade bloc rupture · 02 Global funding seizure · 03 Regional war spillover · 04 Hybrid coercion · 05 Legitimacy rupture · 06 Breadbasket failure · 07 Core disaster · 08 AI labour shock · 09 Cryptographic trust break · 10 Severe pandemic · 11 Debt service reset · 12 Market access opening · 13 Great-power détente · 14 Middle East settlement · 15 Clean power threshold · 16 Water-efficient food leap · 17 Automated discovery step · 18 Public service leap · 19 Chronic disease advance · 20 Outbreak defence succeeds. Within each group, trends are ordered by sensitivity, highest first. Each trend is assigned to the one domain of the National Capability Framework it bears on most. The assignment was proposed by the model panel and settled in the final cut. Each trend also belongs to a theme: the cluster of the trend network it falls in. Themes are found from the links between trends, not assigned. Download as CSV.