A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government

Geopolitical and securityDownside scenario

A disputed election, succession or constitutional ruling produces competing claims to lawful authority in one nation. Fabricated evidence and coordinated intimidation of officials intensify the dispute. For six months, recurrent protests and selective security-force refusals prevent normal administration in areas containing 20 per cent of the population. Revenue collection and essential service delivery fall, and national output runs 5 per cent below its previous path. Courts and official information become contested instruments. Physical assets are undamaged. The state must restore accepted authority without normalising repression or permanent emergency powers.

Most Relevant Trends

The 23 trends graded High or above, of the 86 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

Governance & Integrity

Information & Influence

Strategic Infrastructure

Production & Innovation

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

1 trend

10 trends

12 trends

13 trends

27 trends

23 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Election integrity Information & Influence	Critical	Weakening acceptance of elections and counts is the core path to the disputed transfer of power.
Misinformation & disinformation Information & Influence	Very high	Fabricated evidence drives the dispute; the volume of falsehood decides whether any claim to authority is accepted.
Populist politics Governance & Integrity	Very high	Refusal to accept electoral and judicial outcomes along partisan lines is a core driver of the dispute.
Military rule resurgence Governance & Integrity	Very high	A coup is the extreme case of security forces refusing lawful authority; the trend shows it succeeding and persisting.
Political polarisation Governance & Integrity	Very high	Refusal to accept electoral and judicial outcomes along partisan lines is a core driver of the dispute.
Rule of law Governance & Integrity	Very high	A constitutional ruling may trigger the dispute, and court independence decides whether any ruling is accepted.
Civil unrest Governance & Integrity	Very high	Recurrent protests that prevent administration in a fifth of the country are central to the scenario.
Political violence Governance & Integrity	Very high	Coordinated intimidation of officials, judges and election workers is a named escalator; the trend normalises it beforehand.
News influencers Information & Influence	Very high	Fabricated evidence spreads through creators with no editorial standards, and official information loses its agenda-setting role.
Executive overreach Governance & Integrity	Very high	Competing claimants use decrees and emergencies, and the test is restoring authority without permanent emergency powers.
Institutional trust decline Information & Influence	Very high	Restoring accepted authority depends on residual trust in courts, elections and official information.
Deepfakes & synthetic media Information & Influence	High	Indistinguishable fabricated recordings are the ready means of producing the fabricated evidence that intensifies the dispute.
Corruption & state capture Governance & Integrity	High	Captured incumbents have most to lose from defeat, so cling to power and bend courts and security forces.
Frontier AI capability Critical Technology	High	Generative AI makes fabricated evidence and synthetic media cheap and convincing, intensifying disputes over lawful authority.
AI agents Critical Technology	High	Generative AI makes fabricated evidence and synthetic media cheap and convincing, intensifying disputes over lawful authority.
Audience fragmentation Information & Influence	High	Fragmented audiences let fabricated evidence spread; trusted messengers decide whether official information is accepted.
Religious & ethnic nationalism Information & Influence	High	Identity polarisation turns a disputed result into rival communal claims, sustaining protests and security-force refusals.
Democratic backsliding Governance & Integrity	High	Curbed opposition and media make disputes likelier to escalate and repression likelier to normalise.
Tax administration capacity Governance & Integrity	High	Revenue collection falls in contested areas; administrations already weak at enforcement lose most.
Commercial spyware Information & Influence	High	Spyware against judges, journalists and election officials is the intimidation tool of a contested transfer.
Digital surveillance expansion Information & Influence	High	Cheap AI surveillance lets competing authorities target officials and protesters, testing the bar against normalised repression.
Internet censorship & shutdowns Information & Influence	High	Cheap AI surveillance lets competing authorities target officials and protesters, testing the bar against normalised repression.
State capacity Governance & Integrity	High	State capacity decides whether revenue and services hold when administration is blocked in contested areas.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Election integrityCritical