Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis

Energy, climate and resourcesDownside scenario

Extreme heat and drought cut exportable grain from two major producing regions by 25 per cent in the same season. Export restrictions by other suppliers and a fertiliser shortage prevent rapid substitution. International staple prices double and stay there for 18 months, and physical import availability falls 15 per cent for highly exposed buyers. Water shortages also constrain domestic harvests and power generation in the affected regions. Governments must protect nutrition and farm viability while managing scarce foreign exchange, cross-border water disputes and unrest over food distribution. Exporters that are not affected and holders of usable stocks gain; poor consumers, food importers and water-stressed producers lose.

Most Relevant Trends

The 18 trends graded High or above, of the 109 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

Strategic Infrastructure

Governance & Integrity

Financial Strength

Trade & Investment

Human Capital

Production & Innovation

Information & Influence

National Security

Critical Technology

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

1 trend

9 trends

8 trends

16 trends

39 trends

36 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Grain trade concentration Trade & Investment	Critical	The scenario is concentrated exporters failing and others restricting shipments; importers' exposure decides who suffers.
Climate change & physical risk Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Warming makes concurrent heat and drought failures in major grain regions markedly more likely.
Sea level rise Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Warming makes concurrent heat and drought failures in major grain regions markedly more likely.
Fertiliser dependence Trade & Investment	Very high	The named fertiliser shortage blocks substitution; nations dependent on few fertiliser exporters cannot raise domestic harvests.
Child malnutrition Human Capital	Very high	Already undernourished groups suffer most when staples double; the scenario sharply deepens deprivation and tests nutrition protection.
Freshwater scarcity Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Pre-existing water stress deepens harvest and power shortfalls and drives the scenario's cross-border water disputes.
Cost of living squeeze Financial Strength	Very high	Doubled staple prices land on households whose food budgets have already outrun incomes; relief demands follow.
Humanitarian system strain Information & Influence	Very high	Doubled staple prices halve what food agencies can buy as famine response falls to a defunded system.
Strategic stockpiles Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Grain and fertiliser reserves decide who can bridge 18 months of doubled prices; stockholders gain.
Transboundary water disputes Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Pre-existing water stress deepens harvest and power shortfalls and drives the scenario's cross-border water disputes.
Inflation persistence Financial Strength	High	Doubled staple prices for 18 months raise inflation and cut purchasing power.
Flood defence & dam safety Strategic Infrastructure	High	Effective reservoir storage decides how far drought cuts irrigation and hydropower, and upstream dams drive disputes.
Civil unrest Governance & Integrity	High	Doubled staple prices are a classic trigger of food riots and unrest over distribution.
Aid & climate finance retreat Financial Strength	High	Food assistance and safety nets in poorer importers depend on donor funding precisely when staple prices double.
Capital flow volatility Financial Strength	High	Scenario explicitly tests scarce foreign exchange; reserves determine whether importers can pay doubled staple prices.
Social protection gaps Governance & Integrity	High	Protecting nutrition when staple prices double depends on the reach of safety nets.
Forced displacement Human Capital	High	Displaced people depend on food assistance that doubled prices and shrinking donor budgets cannot cover; new displacement follows.
Commodity price volatility Trade & Investment	High	Staple prices doubling for 18 months swells import bills of narrow-basket food importers and drains foreign exchange.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Grain trade concentrationCritical