A major disaster disables the national economic core

Energy, climate and resourcesDownside scenario

A flood, storm, fire, heat emergency or earthquake strikes the nation's principal economic concentration. The hazard is the one most relevant to that nation, calibrated to a common consequence: 10 per cent of the population affected and direct damage equal to 8 per cent of annual GDP. Key transport, water and health assets in the core operate below half capacity for 30 days. Reconstruction takes two years and insurance covers less than half the loss. The scenario does not impose an identical physical hazard on every nation. It tests evacuation, continuity of essential services and recovery finance. It is the only natural-hazard test among the twenty.

Most Relevant Trends

The 17 trends graded High or above, of the 111 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

Strategic Infrastructure

Financial Strength

Governance & Integrity

Human Capital

Information & Influence

Critical Technology

National Security

Production & Innovation

Trade & Investment

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

0 trends

8 trends

9 trends

21 trends

33 trends

40 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Climate change & physical risk Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Warming raises the frequency and severity of the floods, storms, fires and heat emergencies that strike the core.
Urbanisation & megacities Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Concentration of people and output in the core sets how many are affected and how much is damaged.
Sea level rise Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Warming raises the frequency and severity of the floods, storms, fires and heat emergencies that strike the core.
Climate adaptation Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Retrofits and enforced codes largely decide direct damage and whether transport, water and health assets keep operating.
Construction productivity Production & Innovation	Very high	Construction capacity and planning speed largely decide whether two-year reconstruction is achieved within budget.
Disaster risk finance Financial Strength	Very high	Pre-arranged catastrophe bonds and contingent credit decide whether recovery money arrives within days for an 8 per cent loss.
Local government strain Governance & Integrity	Very high	A disaster in the principal economic concentration puts evacuation and first response on city government.
Insurance retreat Financial Strength	Very high	Insurance retreat is why cover is under half the loss, shifting reconstruction costs to households and budgets.
Audience fragmentation Information & Influence	High	Evacuation warnings and service instructions must reach fragmented audiences while core communications are degraded.
Early warning systems Strategic Infrastructure	High	Timely warnings that reach people drive evacuation and avoided losses for floods, storms, fires and heat.
Civil defence revival National Security	High	Trained communities and household stocks speed evacuation and sustain people while core services run at half capacity.
Flood defence & dam safety Strategic Infrastructure	High	Condition of flood defences and dams largely decides flood damage and the risk of catastrophic failure.
Telecom network resilience Strategic Infrastructure	High	Network backup power and repair crews decide whether evacuation and emergency coordination work in the core.
Deregulation drive Governance & Integrity	High	Weakened building codes, floodplain rules and insurance oversight raise damage and leave more loss uninsured.
Forced displacement Human Capital	High	Disasters are a main driver of displacement; evacuating and housing 10 per cent of the population is the core test.
State capacity Governance & Integrity	High	Evacuation, continuity of essential services and reconstruction delivery depend directly on state capacity.
Ageing infrastructure Strategic Infrastructure	High	Assets beyond design life fail first under the hazard and lengthen restoration of transport, water and health.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Climate change & physical riskVery high