Critical trade divides into rival blocs

Economic and tradeDownside scenario

The largest trading powers impose reciprocal tariffs, export controls and investment restrictions covering industrial inputs, advanced chips and digital services. Within six months, suppliers accounting for 40 per cent of global supply of several critical inputs, among them rare earth magnets, chip-making tools and pharmaceutical ingredients, become inaccessible to the opposing bloc. Prices of the affected inputs double and global trade volumes fall 10 per cent over two years. Neutral countries face secondary restrictions and incompatible standards. Substitution takes at least two years. The test is continuity of essential production and the ability to preserve policy autonomy. In its sharpest form, a single dominant supplier halts exports outright.

Most Relevant Trends

The 34 trends graded High or above, of the 158 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

Trade & Investment

Critical Technology

Production & Innovation

Financial Strength

Governance & Integrity

Strategic Infrastructure

National Security

Information & Influence

Human Capital

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

4 trends

11 trends

19 trends

34 trends

56 trends

34 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Rare earth dependence Trade & Investment	Critical	Rare earth magnets are named; one dominant supplier halting exports is the scenario's sharpest form.
Export controls Trade & Investment	Critical	Export controls and third-country restrictions are the mechanism; the sharpest form is a supplier halting exports.
Economic coercion Trade & Investment	Critical	Export controls and third-country restrictions are the mechanism; the sharpest form is a supplier halting exports.
Supplier concentration Trade & Investment	Critical	Single-source suppliers with no quick substitute are what turn bloc restrictions into halted essential production.
Tariff escalation Trade & Investment	Very high	Reciprocal tariffs as routine retaliation are the escalation path the scenario sets out.
AI chip supply Critical Technology	Very high	Advanced chips are a named controlled input; fabrication concentrated in one location makes access depend on bloc.
Chipmaking tool chokepoints Critical Technology	Very high	Chip-making tools are a named input; their few suppliers' host nations use export controls that drive the split.
Great-power competition National Security	Very high	US-China and Russia-West rivalry is the main driver of reciprocal export controls splitting trade into blocs.
Strategic stockpiles Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Reserves of critical inputs decide whether production continues through the two years substitution takes.
Deindustrialisation pressure Production & Innovation	Very high	Substitution within two years needs domestic steel, chemical and component capacity that closures have removed.
Industrial policy revival Production & Innovation	Very high	Subsidies, tariffs and local-content rules are instruments of bloc division and drivers of its escalation.
Pharmaceutical input concentration Trade & Investment	Very high	Pharmaceutical ingredients are named among inputs cut off; concentrated production leaves health systems no alternative suppliers.
Transshipment & origin rules Trade & Investment	Very high	Transshipment is how restricted inputs leak between blocs; origin enforcement defines the secondary restrictions neutrals face.
Geoeconomic fragmentation Trade & Investment	Very high	Alignment-driven reorganisation of trade and capital is the path to rival blocs; alignment sets access.
Critical minerals supply Trade & Investment	Very high	Tight mineral supply leaves no slack, so bloc controls quickly double input prices and halt production.
Inflation persistence Financial Strength	High	Doubled input prices add to structural inflation, constraining central banks and squeezing households.
Weakening multilateralism Information & Influence	High	A weakened WTO cannot arbitrate reciprocal restrictions, removing a brake on bloc division and secondary measures.
Battery manufacturing Production & Innovation	High	Cell, anode and processing capacity sits largely in one bloc; division doubles battery input prices.
Advanced materials Critical Technology	High	Rare earth and other material inputs are the leverage behind named shortages; tailored substitutes could ease them.
De-dollarisation pressure Financial Strength	High	Rival blocs accelerate alternative payment networks, raising transaction costs and sanctions exposure.
Nuclear fuel supply Trade & Investment	High	Enrichment is concentrated in one bloc; a split cuts fuel for reactors on the other side until new capacity exists.
Middle-power multi-alignment Information & Influence	High	Hedging middle powers are the neutral states facing secondary restrictions; their bargaining decides third-country supply access.
Electric vehicle adoption Strategic Infrastructure	High	Electric motors need rare earth magnets and batteries need bloc-concentrated materials; doubled prices and cut-offs stall the transition.
Regional medicines manufacturing Production & Innovation	High	Regional production reduces reliance on pharmaceutical ingredients cut off by the opposing bloc.
Defence industrial capacity National Security	High	Munitions and weapons production depends on rare-earth magnets and components from concentrated opposing-bloc suppliers.
Cloud concentration risk Critical Technology	High	Controls on digital services cut nations off from foreign hyperscale clouds hosting their critical workloads.
Advanced semiconductors Critical Technology	High	Leading-edge chips and packaging are named controlled inputs; domestic design and integration capability shapes substitution.
Supply chain resilience Trade & Investment	High	Thin input stocks mean cut-offs halt production within weeks, long before two-year substitution completes.
Digital sovereignty Critical Technology	High	Localised data and compute buffer nations against cut-off, and the split sharply accelerates localisation rules.
Technical standards competition Information & Influence	High	Rival standards for telecoms and digital services leave neutral countries facing incompatible systems and lock-in.
Market concentration Production & Innovation	High	Supply of critical inputs sits with a few dominant firms; concentration is why a single supplier can halt exports.
Manufacturing overcapacity Production & Innovation	High	Subsidised overcapacity in steel, solar and vehicles provokes reciprocal tariffs that deepen bloc division.
Manufacturing reshoring Production & Innovation	High	Localised production options decide how quickly essential inputs can be substituted when suppliers become inaccessible.
Economic security policy Trade & Investment	High	Screening and diversification mandates both escalate the split and decide continuity of essential production.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Rare earth dependenceCritical