Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale

Energy, climate and resourcesUpside scenario

Independent commercial trials establish that a replicable combination of renewables, storage and firm clean generation supplies reliable electricity at 40 per cent below the cost of new fossil plant across several climate zones. Standardised projects reach financial close within 18 months. Early adopters cut industrial electricity costs by 30 per cent within five years, which accelerates electrification and changes where energy-intensive industry and data centres invest. The gain goes to nations that connect projects, secure materials and reform power markets quickly. Hydrocarbon-dependent revenues weaken as expected long-term demand and asset values are revised down, ahead of the fall in volumes.

Most Relevant Trends

The 24 trends graded High or above, of the 109 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

Strategic Infrastructure

Trade & Investment

Production & Innovation

Governance & Integrity

Information & Influence

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

1 trend

9 trends

14 trends

15 trends

36 trends

34 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Grid-scale storage Strategic Infrastructure	Critical	Storage is one of the three named components of the package; its cost curve decides whether it undercuts fossil plant.
Solar & wind expansion Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Renewables are the core of the validated package; existing build capacity decides how fast nations adopt it.
Battery manufacturing Production & Innovation	Very high	Cheap storage is a core component of the firm clean power combination and its 40 per cent cost advantage.
Grid expansion bottlenecks Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Gains go to nations that connect projects and reform power markets; network capacity is the binding constraint.
LNG trade expansion Trade & Investment	Very high	Cheap domestic clean power lets importers displace imported fuel; they have the strongest incentive and largest gain.
Coal power persistence Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Coal is the incumbent that firm clean power 40 per cent cheaper displaces; coal-dependent systems face stranded fleets.
Solar manufacturing Production & Innovation	Very high	Falling solar cost is a main reason renewables-led systems can undercut new fossil plant by 40 per cent.
Deindustrialisation pressure Production & Innovation	Very high	Energy cost is the trend's main driver; 30 per cent cheaper industrial power decides which regions keep heavy industry.
Energy import dependence Trade & Investment	Very high	Cheap domestic clean power lets importers displace imported fuel; they have the strongest incentive and largest gain.
Commodity price volatility Trade & Investment	Very high	Hydrocarbon revenues and asset values are revised down; narrow-basket fuel exporters lose fiscal base first.
Fuel supply & refining Strategic Infrastructure	High	Hydrocarbon asset values and revenues are revised down ahead of volumes, stranding refining and supply investment.
Electrification of heat & industry Strategic Infrastructure	High	Cheap firm power cuts industrial electricity costs 30 per cent, accelerating electrification and relocating energy-intensive industry.
AI data centre build-out Critical Technology	High	Data-centre power demand anchors firm clean power projects, and the scenario redirects where data centres invest.
Cost of living squeeze Financial Strength	High	Firm clean power 40 per cent cheaper directly cuts the energy bills at the heart of the squeeze.
Nuclear fuel supply Trade & Investment	High	Nuclear is a candidate firm clean source; fuel chains decide whether it can scale within the window.
Small modular reactors Critical Technology	High	Small modular reactors are a candidate for the scenario's firm clean generation; licensing depth decides who builds.
Sustainable finance retreat Financial Strength	High	Transition pricing channels capital to clean projects and accelerates writedowns of hydrocarbon assets and revenues.
Lobbying & regulatory capture Governance & Integrity	High	Incumbent utilities and fossil interests slow the power-market reform and grid access the gain depends on.
Data centre power demand Strategic Infrastructure	High	Data-centre demand is a leading buyer of firm clean power, and the scenario shifts where data centres invest.
Aid & climate finance retreat Financial Strength	High	Poorer nations' ability to connect cheap clean projects depends on external finance that is falling short.
Carbon pricing Governance & Integrity	High	Carbon prices widen clean power's cost advantage and shift where energy-intensive industry invests.
Carbon border adjustments Trade & Investment	High	Cheap clean power cuts embedded emissions, so carbon charges turn adopters' low-carbon industry into export advantage.
Grid stability & black start Strategic Infrastructure	High	Firm clean generation in the package fills the gap left by retiring dispatchable plant.
Critical minerals supply Trade & Investment	High	Gains go to nations that secure materials; copper and lithium constraints limit how fast projects connect.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Grid-scale storageCritical