Most Relevant Trends
The 9 trends graded High or above, of the 71 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.
By capability domain
The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.
32
21
19
19
18
17
7
6
4
By relevance
0 trends
2 trends
7 trends
10 trends
23 trends
29 trends
| Trend | Relevance | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Agricultural productivity Production & Innovation | Very high | Precision irrigation and soil management are package components; uneven adoption capacity decides who gains. |
| Grain trade concentration Trade & Investment | Very high | Higher yields in low-yield importing regions cut reliance on a few exporters; staple prices fall and high-cost exporters lose. |
| Climate change & physical risk Strategic Infrastructure | High | Changing heat and rainfall create the need for climate-resilient varieties and decide their value. |
| Sea level rise Strategic Infrastructure | High | Changing heat and rainfall create the need for climate-resilient varieties and decide their value. |
| Soil degradation Strategic Infrastructure | High | Soil management is part of the package; soil condition sets attainable yield gains and adoption effort. |
| Freshwater scarcity Strategic Infrastructure | High | Water stress gives a 30 per cent cut in water per tonne its value and frames the withdrawal test. |
| Financial inclusion Financial Strength | High | The test is affordable smallholder adoption; access to credit and insurance decides who adopts. |
| Transboundary water disputes Strategic Infrastructure | High | Water stress gives a 30 per cent cut in water per tonne its value and frames the withdrawal test. |
| Emerging-market consumers Trade & Investment | High | Africa holds many major low-yield regions; its smallholders and growing food demand decide the package's impact. |
Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention
For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.
Regions
8.0×
#346.8×
#385.3×
#334.2×
#623.7×
#95Blocs
5.3×
#334.3×
#423.5×
#703.2×
#503.0×
#68Countries
23×
#1313×
#279.8×
#417.9×
#297.5×
#41Regions
3.3×
#632.7×
#851.8×
#871.3×
#1391.3×
#132Blocs
1.9×
#821.8×
#961.8×
#1041.4×
#1181.3×
#130Countries
9.9×
#307.1×
#475.9×
#435.6×
#514.7×
#58Regions
24×
#922×
#1018×
#717×
#1010×
#29Blocs
18×
#713×
#1112×
#1011×
#910×
#10Countries
93×
#145×
#242×
#341×
#838×
#8Regions
11×
#214.7×
#424.1×
#473.7×
#552.3×
#90Blocs
6.7×
#305.5×
#334.1×
#474.1×
#333.6×
#50Countries
18×
#1517×
#137.2×
#286.8×
#706.0×
#64Regions
18×
#1311×
#214.5×
#593.7×
#563.6×
#97Blocs
4.9×
#254.7×
#394.6×
#473.5×
#573.5×
#50Countries
34×
#929×
#524×
#1517×
#2516×
#15