A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers

Geopolitical and securityUpside scenario

The United States and China implement a monitored agreement that removes most bilateral tariffs imposed since 2018 and relaxes selected technology restrictions, while controls on the most advanced and military-use items remain. Crisis communication and military incident rules reduce the risk of confrontation around Taiwan without resolving sovereignty claims. Within 18 months of entry into force, restricted trade worth at least 1 per cent of global GDP becomes accessible again. Competition continues under clearer rules, and unrelated regional wars are not assumed to end. Nations must revise industrial policy, supplier arrangements and defence planning. Protected producers and economies that gained from trade diversion face immediate adjustment.

Most Relevant Trends

The 11 trends graded High or above, of the 96 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

Trade & Investment

National Security

Critical Technology

Production & Innovation

Governance & Integrity

Financial Strength

Information & Influence

Strategic Infrastructure

Human Capital

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

1 trend

5 trends

20 trends

36 trends

29 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Great-power competition National Security	Critical	The agreement is a managed reversal of US-China rivalry; it cannot be judged without it.
Tariff escalation Trade & Investment	Very high	The agreement removes tariffs imposed since 2018, directly reversing the trend for the two largest economies.
Export controls Trade & Investment	Very high	The agreement relaxes selected technology restrictions while keeping advanced controls, directly altering the regime.
Transshipment & origin rules Trade & Investment	Very high	Removing bilateral tariffs ends the tariff gap that drives rerouting; diversion-hub economies face the named adjustment.
Geoeconomic fragmentation Trade & Investment	Very high	The agreement partly reverses US–China fragmentation, reopening restricted trade worth 1 per cent of GDP.
Economic coercion Trade & Investment	Very high	The agreement relaxes selected technology restrictions while keeping advanced controls, directly altering the regime.
Weakening multilateralism Information & Influence	High	The agreement's value depends on whether US and Chinese commitments survive domestic contestation and elections.
Rare earth dependence Trade & Investment	High	Rare earth export licensing is central leverage in US-China bargaining; relaxation eases magnet supply.
AI chip supply Critical Technology	High	The agreement lowers confrontation risk around the fabrication hub and decides which accelerator controls are relaxed.
Deindustrialisation pressure Production & Innovation	High	Removing post-2018 tariffs exposes protected steel, chemical and car plants to the import competition closing them.
Industrial policy revival Production & Innovation	High	The agreement forces nations to revise industrial policy as tariffs fall and protected producers face adjustment.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Great-power competitionCritical