A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust

Technology and infrastructureDownside scenario

An adversary demonstrates a practical quantum attack on widely used public-key cryptography (RSA and elliptic-curve algorithms) by decrypting intercepted material and forging selected digital signatures. Within 30 days, governments and financial operators must revoke vulnerable credentials and suspend some cross-border services. Sensitive data collected and stored in earlier years become readable. Emergency migration to post-quantum algorithms takes 12 months because embedded devices and supplier software cannot all be replaced at once. Physical networks keep operating, but confidence in authentication, confidential exchange and the legal validity of digital transactions falls sharply. Symmetric encryption with long keys is assumed to hold.

Most Relevant Trends

The 9 trends graded High or above, of the 69 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

Information & Influence

Critical Technology

Governance & Integrity

Financial Strength

National Security

Production & Innovation

Strategic Infrastructure

Trade & Investment

Human Capital

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

2 trends

5 trends

13 trends

29 trends

18 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Quantum computing Critical Technology	Critical	The scenario is a practical quantum attack; progress in error correction and hardware sets its likelihood and timing.
Post-quantum cryptography Critical Technology	Critical	How far migration to post-quantum algorithms has progressed decides how much breaks and how long recovery takes.
Crypto-asset mainstreaming Financial Strength	Very high	Crypto-assets rest wholly on elliptic-curve signatures; a break lets forged transactions drain wallets held by pensions and reserves.
Digital public infrastructure Governance & Integrity	Very high	Digital identity and payment systems rest on public-key signatures; their concentration makes the break nationally systemic.
Stablecoins & digital currencies Financial Strength	High	Token ledgers rest on elliptic-curve signatures; forged signatures let attackers move holdings, undermining stablecoin and digital-currency validity.
Data protection Governance & Integrity	High	Stored personal data becoming readable creates a mass breach, testing supervisors, remedies and notification duties.
State cyber intrusion National Security	High	Material stolen in persistent intrusions becomes readable, and forged signatures extend concealed access.
Content provenance Information & Influence	High	Content credentials rest on public-key signatures; forgeable signatures make provenance claims unreliable until migrated.
Asset tokenisation Financial Strength	High	Tokenised ownership records depend on public-key signatures; forgeries threaten legal certainty of title.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Quantum computingCritical