A regional war closes a globally important sea route

Geopolitical and securityDownside scenario

A regional confrontation becomes six months of conventional warfare involving a major power and its partners. A globally important strait loses 70 per cent of normal commercial traffic for 90 days, followed by six months of partial recovery. Strikes and cyber operations damage nearby ports, energy facilities and communications. At the peak, oil prices are twice and gas prices four times their pre-war level, and war-risk insurance on affected routes triples. Nations must manage defence commitments, evacuation, displaced people and fuel rationing together. The test assumes neither rapid victory nor nuclear escalation. The Strait of Hormuz is the default theatre; other straits are variants.

Most Relevant Trends

The 24 trends graded High or above, of the 135 of 250 relevant to this scenario: those that change how likely it is, how hard it lands, or are themselves sharply changed by it. Each is graded on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical, with the mechanism the grade rests on.

By capability domain

The grades of each domain’s relevant trends, added together.

National Security

Trade & Investment

Strategic Infrastructure

Financial Strength

Governance & Integrity

Information & Influence

Production & Innovation

Human Capital

Critical Technology

By relevance

Critical

Very high

High

Moderate

Low

Very low

4 trends

7 trends

13 trends

29 trends

44 trends

38 trends

Trend	Relevance	Why
Fuel supply & refining Strategic Infrastructure	Critical	Refining, storage and distribution capacity decide how long fuel reaches users when the strait closes and rationing begins.
Contested maritime access National Security	Critical	Strait closure is the scenario; access depends on escorts, insurers and sea control as this trend describes.
LNG trade expansion Trade & Investment	Critical	With oil doubled and gas quadrupled, dependence on Gulf oil and LNG through fixed routes determines national impact.
Energy import dependence Trade & Investment	Critical	With oil doubled and gas quadrupled, dependence on Gulf oil and LNG through fixed routes determines national impact.
Missile proliferation & defence National Security	Very high	Proliferated missiles and long-range drones are what close the strait and strike ports and energy facilities.
Fertiliser dependence Trade & Investment	Very high	Gulf states ship much of world urea, ammonia and sulphur via Hormuz; quadrupled gas prices raise nitrogen costs.
Cost of living squeeze Financial Strength	Very high	Doubled oil and quadrupled gas prices hit households already squeezed, forcing bill support that strains budgets.
Persistent armed conflict National Security	Very high	Numerous conflicts sustained by external backers and weak settlements make a prolonged regional war near a strait likelier.
Strategic stockpiles Strategic Infrastructure	Very high	Public oil and gas stocks determine whether 90 days of closure becomes rationing or a managed drawdown.
Port & carrier concentration Trade & Investment	Very high	Gulf hub ports shut and alliances reroute; carriers' decisions and alternative gateways set national supply.
Forced displacement Human Capital	Very high	The war adds new displaced people to protracted caseloads in a region whose host capacity is already saturated.
Private military & proxy forces National Security	High	Proxy militias attacking shipping and energy sites extend disruption around the strait and complicate deterrence.
Inflation persistence Financial Strength	High	Doubled oil and quadrupled gas prices drive inflation, constraining monetary policy.
Drone warfare National Security	High	Cheap drones let a weaker party attack shipping, ports and energy sites, sustaining the strait's closure.
Coal power persistence Strategic Infrastructure	High	Coal-reliant systems are insulated from quadrupled gas prices; others switch back to coal, lifting demand and prices.
Humanitarian system strain Information & Influence	High	Humanitarian response to displacement and strikes in the theatre falls on agencies already without funds.
Great-power competition National Security	High	A major power's involvement and its rivals' backing shape the war's duration and the strait's closure.
Defence industrial capacity National Security	High	Six months of conventional war consume munitions faster than low stockpiles and surge capacity replace them.
Deindustrialisation pressure Production & Innovation	High	Quadrupled gas prices close remaining energy-intensive plants while defence commitments need the capacity lost.
Military AI & autonomous weapons National Security	High	Cheap drones let a weaker party attack shipping, ports and energy sites, sustaining the strait's closure.
Trade corridor competition Trade & Investment	High	Bypass pipelines and overland corridors determine how much trade avoids the strait; closure accelerates investment.
Supply chain resilience Trade & Investment	High	Low fuel and component stocks force rationing quickly when strait traffic falls 70 per cent.
Remittance dependence Financial Strength	High	A Gulf war forces evacuation of migrant workers, cutting remittances that many Asian and African households depend on.
Commodity price volatility Trade & Investment	High	Doubled oil and quadrupled gas prices pass straight into importers' bills and exporters' revenues.

Top 5 Scenario Trends – Regional Attention

For the 5 most relevant trends: the regions, blocs and countries where each draws the highest attention intensity, with its rank among the 250 trends there.

Fuel supply & refiningCritical