Trend · rank 41 of 250

Tax base erosion & coordination

Value is moving to mobile capital, digital platforms and low-tax jurisdictions while tax systems still rest on payroll and physical presence, making national revenue depend on enforcement and incomplete international coordination.

Financial StrengthMoney & debtdebt financegeoeconomicsinstitutions

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass, where it was Tax base erosion & global tax reform. Held by all three panel models.

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Share of attention: 0.12%rank 173 of 250 · a year earlier 0.15%
Now: 88
Over a year: −22%Easing
Over three years: +6%
Peak: 20729 Jun 2025
Sources: Bothagreement 0.48
Coverage: 14languages · 55 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (14 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

Language	Share	Now	Over a year
English	49%	86	−20%
Spanish	11%	83	−42%
Japanese	9%	87	−32%
French	7%	79	−24%
Russian	6%	76	−37%
German	6%	78	−36%
Italian	4%	83	−26%
Chinese	3%	99	+1%
Dutch	1%	120	0%
Turkish	1%	62	−38%
Indonesian	1%	82	−51%
Hebrew	1%	115	−22%
Korean	1%	100	+8%
Arabic	0%	118	+15%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

100

The 12 highest of 55 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
North America	Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English	81	−18%	−24%	−10%
Europe	Google in 7 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Dutch	78	−22%	−29%	−24%
Indo-Pacific	Google in 7 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Indonesian	98	−4%	−4%	+11%
South Asia	Google in 1 country	86	−13%	−2%	−22%
Gulf and Middle East	Wikipedia in Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew	95	+7%	−18%	+31%
Latin America and Caribbean	Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish	87	−22%	−13%	−4%
Russia and Eurasia	Wikipedia in Russian	76	−12%	−37%	−35%

G20 members

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
Australia	Google	133	+16%	+65%	+35%
Brazil	Google	154	−15%	+356%	+308%
Canada	Google	53	−31%	−18%	−32%
France	Google + Wikipedia in French	84	+4%	−26%	−19%
Germany	Google + Wikipedia in German	72	−38%	−37%	−27%
India	Google	86	−13%	−2%	−22%
Indonesia	Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian	89	−5%	−32%	+3%
Italy	Google + Wikipedia in Italian	82	−15%	−22%	−14%
Japan	Google + Wikipedia in Japanese	84	−16%	−18%	+8%
South Korea	Wikipedia in Korean	100	−7%	+8%	+19%
Mexico	Google	22	−85%	−71%	−77%
Russia	Wikipedia in Russian	76	−12%	−37%	−35%
Türkiye	Wikipedia in Turkish	62	0%	−38%	−15%
United Kingdom	Google	62	−33%	−53%	−41%
United States	Google + Wikipedia in English	85	−17%	−26%	−7%

GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.

Place	Share, last 13 weeks	Rank there	A year earlier	Read from
World	0.12%	173 of 250	0.15%	Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide
Asia Pacific	0.16%	149 of 250	0.14%	Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China
Europe	0.13%	165 of 250	0.20%	German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them
Africa	0.06%	154 of 250	0.06%	Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count
South America	0.21%	122 of 250	0.29%	Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries
North America	0.03%	209 of 249	0.04%	Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country
Oceania	0.05%	172 of 249	0.06%	Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country
United States	0.02%	210 of 249	0.03%	Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
United Kingdom	0.07%	142 of 249	0.10%	Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
India	0.03%	184 of 249	0.02%	Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country
China	·	·	·	Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there
Russia	0.15%	154 of 203	0.23%	Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought
Japan	0.43%	79 of 250	0.35%	Japanese reading and Google searching
Germany	0.07%	206 of 250	0.17%	German reading and Google searching
France	0.14%	137 of 250	0.25%	French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching
Italy	0.24%	94 of 250	0.38%	Italian reading and Google searching
South Korea	0.09%	171 of 250	0.09%	Korean reading and Google searching
Indonesia	0.15%	95 of 250	0.10%	Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count
Brazil	0.07%	181 of 250	0.07%	Portuguese reading and Google searching
Türkiye	0.00%	197 of 250	0.00%	Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

Relation	Scenario	Family
4 · High	An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08	Technology and infrastructure
3 · Moderate	A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
2 · Low	A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02	Economic and trade
2 · Low	A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗	Economic and trade
2 · Low	A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗	Economic and trade
1 · Very low	Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01	Economic and trade
1 · Very low	A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05	Geopolitical and security
1 · Very low	Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06	Energy, climate and resources
1 · Very low	A major disaster disables the national economic core S07	Energy, climate and resources
1 · Very low	A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10	Health
1 · Very low	Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
1 · Very low	AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very low	Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗	Health
0 · Not related	A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗	Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

Similarity	Trend	Theme	Rank
4 · High	Sovereign creditor fragmentation	Money & debt	88
3 · Moderate	Sovereign debt & interest burden	Money & debt	12
3 · Moderate	Fiscal rules & budget credibility	State capacity & governance	17
3 · Moderate	Slow growth & fiscal space	Money & debt	22
3 · Moderate	Concessional finance scarcity	Money & debt	32
3 · Moderate	Dollar dependence & payment fragmentation	Money & debt	45
3 · Moderate	External liquidity buffer requirements	Money & debt	46
3 · Moderate	Domestic capital market deepening	Money & debt	55
3 · Moderate	Development finance as influence	Diplomacy & influence	63
3 · Moderate	Capital concentration in AI	AI, compute & quantum	67
3 · Moderate	Non-bank finance growth	Money & debt	82
3 · Moderate	Business dynamism & start-up formation	People, health & work	85
3 · Moderate	Bank funding & deposit mobility	Money & debt	101
3 · Moderate	Stablecoins & digital currencies	Money & debt	134
3 · Moderate	Household debt & housing affordability	Money & debt	156
3 · Moderate	Hydrocarbon revenue dependence	Money & debt	196

Tax base erosion & coordination

Sensitivity and network position