Trend · rank 55 of 250

Domestic capital market deepening

Local pension funds, insurers and securities markets are developing unevenly, which determines how far a nation can fund long-term investment in its own currency without relying on foreign borrowing.

Financial StrengthMoney & debtdebt financeinstitutionsresilience

Second pass: Added in the second pass. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
55of 250
Sensitivity
10.8rank 96
Breadth
2of 20 scenarios High or above
PageRank
48.9rank 49
Eigenvector
18.0
Betweenness
24.6
Links
16trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
29.6

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Share of attention
0.14%rank 164 of 250 · a year earlier 0.11%
Now
91
Over a year
+1%Steady
Over three years
−12%
Peak
1446 Apr 2025
Sources
Bothagreement 0.16
Coverage
20languages · 57 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (20 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English52%940%
French7%88−9%
Russian6%78−9%
German6%95+8%
Indonesian5%75+38%
Japanese4%103+24%
Spanish4%88−11%
Italian3%87−9%
Portuguese2%87−4%
Hebrew2%86−9%
Chinese2%169+116%
Persian2%129+71%
Polish1%91−9%
Hindi1%40−33%
Arabic1%116+12%
Turkish1%88−4%
Ukrainian1%105+58%
Korean1%71−31%
Thai0%59−26%
Vietnamese0%136+29%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

The 12 highest of 57 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English94−2%−1%−12%
EuropeGoogle in 7 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Polish85+7%−25%−16%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 7 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Thai97+12%+9%−2%
South AsiaGoogle in 1 country + Wikipedia in Hindi62−23%+1%−60%
Gulf and Middle EastGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew187+89%+93%+82%
AfricaGoogle in 1 country118+25%+27%+1%
Latin America and CaribbeanGoogle in 5 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese78+10%−21%−36%
Russia and EurasiaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian107+2%+9%−13%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
ArgentinaGoogle90+23%−8%−18%
AustraliaGoogle164+18%+56%+115%
BrazilGoogle + Wikipedia in Portuguese78+5%−19%−30%
CanadaGoogle104+9%+29%+14%
FranceGoogle + Wikipedia in French80+8%−35%−17%
GermanyGoogle + Wikipedia in German78+18%−35%−28%
IndiaGoogle + Wikipedia in Hindi62−23%+1%−60%
IndonesiaGoogle + Wikipedia in Indonesian73−7%+8%−20%
ItalyGoogle + Wikipedia in Italian109+15%+7%+25%
JapanGoogle + Wikipedia in Japanese105+35%+9%−1%
South KoreaGoogle + Wikipedia in Korean93−18%−24%+34%
MexicoGoogle58+5%−47%−55%
RussiaWikipedia in Russian78−2%−9%−45%
South AfricaGoogle118+25%+27%+1%
TürkiyeGoogle + Wikipedia in Turkish206+116%+118%+98%
United KingdomGoogle72−19%−42%−30%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English92−4%−6%−14%

Share of attention by region

GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.

PlaceShare, last 13 weeksRank thereA year earlierRead from
World0.14%164 of 2500.11%Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide
Asia Pacific0.26%110 of 2500.14%Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China
Europe0.59%43 of 2500.58%German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them
Africa0.83%31 of 2500.60%Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count
South America0.14%163 of 2500.14%Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries
North America0.03%208 of 2490.03%Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country
Oceania0.05%182 of 2490.02%Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country
United States0.03%204 of 2490.02%Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
United Kingdom0.07%145 of 2490.05%Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country
India0.04%170 of 2490.02%Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country
China···Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there
Russia0.10%174 of 2030.12%Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought
Japan0.22%133 of 2500.19%Japanese reading and Google searching
Germany0.14%164 of 2500.16%German reading and Google searching
France0.14%138 of 2500.18%French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching
Italy0.73%29 of 2500.72%Italian reading and Google searching
South Korea0.36%76 of 2500.19%Korean reading and Google searching
Indonesia0.95%14 of 2500.31%Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count
Brazil0.17%127 of 2500.18%Portuguese reading and Google searching
Türkiye0.03%29 of 2500.03%Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4 · HighA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
4 · HighA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
2 · LowA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
2 · LowCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
1 · Very lowA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
0 · Not relatedA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
5 · Very highNon-bank finance growthMoney & debt82
4 · HighSovereign debt & interest burdenMoney & debt12
4 · HighExternal liquidity buffer requirementsMoney & debt46
4 · HighSovereign creditor fragmentationMoney & debt88
4 · HighStretched asset valuationsMoney & debt157
3 · ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityState capacity & governance17
3 · ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipState capacity & governance20
3 · ModerateSlow growth & fiscal spaceMoney & debt22
3 · ModerateConcessional finance scarcityMoney & debt32
3 · ModerateTax base erosion & coordinationMoney & debt41
3 · ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureState capacity & governance64
3 · ModerateBank funding & deposit mobilityMoney & debt101
3 · ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalTrade, industry & supply chains108
3 · ModerateInsurance retreat & insurabilityEnergy, networks & climate resilience153
3 · ModerateSustainable finance & environmental riskMoney & debt161
3 · ModerateCommercial property repricingMoney & debt217